P&S Intelligence, a market intelligence and consulting firm, projected that worldwide sales of electronic cigarette products would reach 39 billion dollars in revenue by 2030. The figure came from a report the firm published in November 2020.
Where the market stood
For 2019, the firm put the value of the global e-cigarette market at 15.7 billion dollars. An earlier P&S Intelligence paper, released in July 2020, forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2 percent for the years 2020 to 2030. That growth was expected in spite of regulatory restrictions in a number of places.
Europe was described as one of the largest e-cigarette markets at the time, led by Russia, the U.K. and France. North America was predicted to be among the fastest-growing regions as use of these products spread.
What the firm said was driving sales
Availability was named as a main reason for the industry’s revenue growth. Brands had been signing up retail stores so that shoppers could find their products easily, and the range on offer was wide:
- hundreds of e-cigarette brands
- thousands of e-liquid flavors
- a spread of nicotine strengths and device types, which made it simpler for a newcomer to find something that suited them
Two other factors were listed as well: vaping had become more socially accepted, and taxes on cigarettes kept rising.
Online sales expected to grow fastest
Among distribution channels, P&S Intelligence expected online stores to post the highest CAGR, at 13.7 percent. Before the coronavirus outbreak, brick-and-mortar vape shops were very popular because customers could handle a product before paying for it. Social distancing was likely to send more of those customers to online vape shops.
A difficult 2020 for supply
The vaping industry was not spared the problems that hit most businesses in 2020. The great majority of vaping products are made in China, and with that country locked down for several months, e-cigarette products ran short on the market. Competition stayed intense all the same. Manufacturers kept launching new products quickly to get ahead of rivals, and companies also turned their attention to mergers and acquisitions.
An earlier forecast from Bis Research
P&S Intelligence was not alone in predicting growth. Some years before, the market research and consultancy firm Bis Research had published a report of its own. It anticipated a CAGR of 19.34 percent between 2015 and 2025, which would take the market’s value to 46.9 billion dollars.
Nicotine salts and pod systems
Part of the shift in what people were buying came from nicotine salt e-liquids and low-wattage pod devices. A pod system gives a restricted, mouth-to-lung draw, and it is built to run nic salt e-juice, which carries a high level of nicotine.
Nicotine salt is the form of nicotine that occurs in the tobacco leaf. In an e-liquid it delivers a high nicotine strength with a smoother throat hit. JUUL was probably the leading pod system for nic salts at the time, although plenty of other devices did the same job equally well.